The Daily Wire is Lying About an Expert’s Covid-19 Prediction

The Daily Wire just posted an article about a Covid-19 prediction. They stated that epidemiologist Neil Ferguson changed his prediction of the total number of deaths in the UK resulting from Covid-19 from 500,000 to 20,000.

The word “thus” in the last sentence means that because the R0 of the novel Corona virus was higher than that in the prediction, Neil changed his prediction. That’s a lie. The prediction of 500,000 was if no action was taken. Daily Wire even says that in the first paragraph there. But take a look at the actual prediction.

PC=school and university closure, CI=home isolation of cases, HQ=household quarantine,
SD=social distancing of the entire population
Social distancing and school/university closure are triggered at a national level when weekly numbers of new COVID-19 cases diagnosed in ICUs exceed the thresholds
listed under “On trigger” and are suspended when weekly ICU cases drop to 25% of that trigger value.
Source: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

As you can see, the prediction for if all measures were taken, with an R0 closest to the newest data (2.6), range from 12,000 to 48,000, depending on when the measures are implemented. Now look at the actual quote from the New Scientist article that the Daily Wire article was talking about.

He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/#

The UK has taken the measures outlined in the study. They closed schools, implemented home isolation, advised home quarantining, and given guidance for social distancing of the entire population.

So, given the UK has taken these measures, the actual “updated prediction” Neil Ferguson gave was from 12,000-48,000 to 20,000.

The Daily Wire is lying to you.

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